Carbon Farming practices assessment: Modelling spatial changes of Soil Organic Carbon in Flanders, Belgium.

Carbon sequestration in soils is a strategy to mitigate climate change and promote sustainable soil management. Since the European Union (EU) stimulates the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the atmosphere, the necessity to explore innovative approaches to sequester carbon in agricultural landscapes is becoming urgent. Carbon Farming (CF) has emerged as a promising program to mitigate climate change in agriculture but there is still a lack of agreement on which tools can be used to calculate Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) dynamics in this context. Using the RothC model a spatial analysis of SOC in the agricultural parcels of Flanders, Belgium was performed. Two among the various CF practices were simulated: a use of cover crops (CC) and the most common crop rotations adopted in the area, enriched with the use of cover crops. The performances of the model were evaluated and compared to other studies in areas with similar climate and environments. The selected CF practices can mitigate the carbon emissions from agricultural soils up to 60 % of the current projections. The most sensitive variables in the RothC model that affect the final total SOC, and thus determining the model outcome, are the Business As Usual (BAU) carbon inputs and the initial carbon content. For these variables the Pearson Correlation Coefficient with the change in SOC reached values of -0.78 and -0.50 respectively. To achieve net carbon sequestration in the agricultural soils of Flanders, Belgium, more effective solutions need to be evaluated. Furthermore, a larger amount and accessibility of data are required to reach better modelling performances.

Usefulness of cultivar-level calibration of AquaCrop for vegetables depends on the crop and data availability.

As a result of climate change, climatic extremes are expected to increase. For high-value crops like vegetables, irrigation is a potentially economically viable adaptation measure in western Europe. To optimally schedule irrigation, decision support systems based on crop models like AquaCrop are increasingly used by farmers. High value vegetable crops like cauliflower or spinach are grown in two distinct growth cycles per year and, additionally, have a high turnover rate of new varieties. To successfully deploy the AquaCrop model in a decision support system, it requires a robust calibration. However, it is not known whether parameters can be conserved over both growth periods, nor whether a cultivar dependent model calibration is always required. Furthermore, when data are collected from farmers' fields, there are constraints in data availability and uncertainty. We collected data from commercial cauliflower and spinach fields in Belgium in 2019, 2020 and 2021 during different growing periods and of different cultivars. With the use of a Bayesian calibration, we confirmed the need for a condition or cultivar specific calibration for cauliflower, while for spinach, splitting the data per cultivar or pooling the data together did not improve uncertainty on the model simulations. However, due to uncertainties arising from field specific soil and weather conditions, or measurement errors from calibration data, real time field specific adjustments are advised to simulations when using AquaCrop as decision support tool. Remotely sensed or in situ ground data may be invaluable information to reduce uncertainty on model simulations.

Enhancing LULC scenarios impact assessment in hydrological dynamics using participatory mapping protocols in semiarid regions.

Land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios in rural catchment hydrology are crucial to describe the effects of future water dynamics. However, there is a lack of understanding of the effectiveness of including static land covers at the subbasin level to provide inter-annual stability in changing the different water balance components. We developed a step-by-step mapping protocol to extend and enrich the hydrological assessment of future LULC scenarios defined through participatory stakeholder involvement. This novelty included specific allocation of static and dynamic LULC change among the scenarios and then compared the change of water dynamics to the current situation. For this, we quantified the LULC impact on the components of the water balance from three contrasting participatory scenarios implemented with the SWAT model in a rural basin in central Spain. The Land-sharing scenario (LSH) had the highest percentage of permanent grassland and shrubs and no increase of irrigated land compared to baseline. The land-sparing scenario (LSP) intensified agricultural land use close to urban areas, and the land balance scenario (LBA) was intermediate. The LSH increased the aquifer recharge by +1.7% and streamflow by +1.5%, while evapotranspiration and soil water storage decreased by -0.2%. In contrast, the LBA decreased in the riverine flux of -0.5%, an aquifer recharge of -0.6%, a soil water storage of -3.5%, and an evapotranspiration rate of +0.3%. Thus, LSH revealed that the allocation of permanent land cover such as grassland could buffer water dynamics, suggesting that dedicated planning and allocation of permanently vegetated LULC will favour land and water conservation.

Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models.

The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change.

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.

Modelling the impact of agricultural management on soil carbon stocks at the regional scale: the role of lateral fluxes.

Agricultural management has received increased attention over the last decades due to its central role in carbon (C) sequestration and greenhouse gas mitigation. Yet, regardless of the large body of literature on the effects of soil erosion by tillage and water on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural landscapes, the significance of soil redistribution for the overall C budget and the C sequestration potential of land management options remains poorly quantified. In this study, we explore the role of lateral SOC fluxes in regional scale modelling of SOC stocks under three different agricultural management practices in central Belgium: conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and reduced tillage with additional carbon input (RT+i). We assessed each management scenario twice: using a conventional approach that did not account for lateral fluxes and an alternative approach that included soil erosion-induced lateral SOC fluxes. The results show that accounting for lateral fluxes increased C sequestration rates by 2.7, 2.5 and 1.5 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) for CT, RT and RT+i, respectively, relative to the conventional approach. Soil redistribution also led to a reduction of SOC concentration in the plough layer and increased the spatial variability of SOC stocks, suggesting that C sequestration studies relying on changes in the plough layer may underestimate the soil's C sequestration potential due to the effects of soil erosion. Additionally, lateral C export from cropland was in the same of order of magnitude as C sequestration; hence, the fate of C exported from cropland into other land uses is crucial to determine the ultimate impact of management and erosion on the landscape C balance. Consequently, soil management strategies targeting C sequestration will be most effective when accompanied by measures that reduce soil erosion given that erosion loss can balance potential C uptake, particularly in sloping areas.

Effort for money? Farmers' rationale for participation in agri-environment measures with different implementation complexity.

European agri-environment programmes are based on the common principle that farmers deliver environmental services for which society pays. Due to the voluntary nature of agri-environment measures (AEM), the issue of farmers' motives or reasons for participation has been an important topic of investigation in past years. The present paper examines farmers' rationale for participation in AEM against the backdrop of continued debate over whether to develop relatively simple measures that can be readily applied by many farmers or give greater priority to measures that are more targeted - i.e. to the specific management requirement of particular habitats or species - but are often more complex. The paper draws on empirical material from a case study in the Dyle valley, Belgium, including in-depth interviews, expert consultations and a mail survey. It was sought not only to identify and quantify the importance of separate reasons for participation, but also to reveal how these reasons and other elements of relevance were logically interrelated in the explanation that farmers themselves give for their participation. As a result, six modes or styles of participation were identified: opportunistic, calculative, compensatory, optimising, catalysing and engaged. The analyses suggest that there were notable differences in that both separate reasons for and modes of participation do vary with the complexity of the measures' requirements. Overall, the study demonstrates that participation in AEM is not simply a matter of weighing the money against the effort for adoption. Whereas money is an important driver for participation (in particular, for those adopting complex AEM) it plays widely differing roles depending on the level of farmers' reasoning (farm enterprise, single practice or landscape feature) and the importance they give to other considerations (environmental effect, production potential of land, goodness of fit, etc.). Practical implications are drawn for both policy makers and programme managers who develop and make available tailor-made support.